[Summit] Higher virus death estimates + Possible Vaccine + Why Covid-19 is far worse than the 'Flu (The Boston Globe) [Covid News no. 200]

Tue May 5 21:55:18 UTC 2020

Sorry to be so depressing on this Cinco de Mayo (and Karl Marx’s birthday). 
The two main pieces from The Boston Globe are rather dense in facts, unknown factors and reasonable hypotheses, but well worth reading. 
The only consolation might be that Rhode Island seems to be doing much better relative to the rest of the nation (about 7% of the people tested so far, and no daily Covid-19 death total above 25).
Dave

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| BREAKING NEWS ALERT |

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| The state of Massachusetts reported Tuesday that the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak had risen by 122 cases to 4,212. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases climbed by 1,184 to 70,271. The Department of Public Health also reported 9,081 new tests had been conducted, marking a total of 333,349 in Massachusetts.

Earlier in the day, Governor Charlie Baker struck a cautiously optimistic tone about the state’s progress in battling the coronavirus pandemic, saying that the trends in data were hopeful, but “we’re still very much in the fight.”

Read the full story on BostonGlobe.com.

Related: 
- See the latest coronavirus numbers from Massachusetts
- Closely watched model says coronavirus could kill nearly 7,700 Mass. residents by Aug. 4
- How far has the coronavirus spread? The answer may be in the sewers |

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| Tuesday, May 5   |  Follow Teresa Hanafin on Twitter |

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Higher virus death estimates, a promising vaccine, the real numbers, and an act of grace

By Teresa Hanafin, Globe Staff
Good day. It's Tuesday, May 5, the 126th day of the year. It's Cinco de Mayo, celebrated more in the US than Mexico. In previous years, I'd be at a Mexican restaurant with friends, scarfing down chips and salsa and guac and knocking back margaritas. Now I have no idea when I'll do that again.

Sunrise in Boston was at 5:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:48 p.m., for 14 hours and 15 minutes of sunlight. The waxing moon is 96 percent full.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has a bunch of recipes for easy sandwiches you can make while in quarantine, and even though a couple of them look as though somebody regurgitated the ingredients, I think I could eat the Caribbean Mango Wrap every day. |

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What's it like outside? There has been this really bright yellow thing in the sky the past couple of days that is blinding and really confounding.

Hey, sport: The Globe's Chad Finn says we should be excited about Jarrett Stidham as the Patriots' next QB because, you know, he has thrown a total of four passes in the NFL, the first of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. What a thrill! But actually, the story is pretty convincing.
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Today's U.S. coronavirus / COVID-19 numbers:

Total confirmed cases: 1,192,119 (it was 1,070,032 at this time Friday)
Total confirmed deaths: 70,115 (it was 63,019 Friday)

Two major storylines today involve the dramatically increased estimates of deaths from the coronavirus, and the progress on a vaccine.

But first, I keep getting e-mails from a handful of readers who can't seem to grasp why comparing the seasonal flu to the coronavirus is absurd. They apparently believe that since we don't stay apart and shut down businesses for the flu, we shouldn't be doing so for this virus.

Good grief.

Trump supporters and pundits on the right are doing the same thing to score political points. It's not just a colossal waste of everyone's time; it's deadly.

You may remember that a couple of weeks ago, I explained that the numbers of deaths from the seasonal flu is an estimate of the total flu burden, extrapolated using modeling after the flu season is over. In other words, the death numbers you see for the flu are confirmed cases PLUS estimates. That's because many flu cases are not confirmed via a test, so the total number has to be estimated using scientific models.

In contrast, the number of deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus, are all confirmed cases, with no modeling estimates added. And like the flu, many COVID-19 deaths are not confirmed via a test.

Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust, an emergency room physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an instructor at Harvard Medical School in Boston, was as frustrated by the bogus comparisons by Trump and his minions as I am.

So he decided to simplify it for those people: Make an apples-to-apples comparison by measuring flu mortality the same way we count covid-19 deaths: Look at confirmed flu cases and confirmed coronavirus cases. No modeling estimates included.

The results were shocking.

The Washington Post put his numbers on a chart:

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Keep in mind that the current flu season isn't quite over yet, although it's pretty close, and of course, the current number of COVID-19 deaths is much higher than shown on this chart, which was done May 2, and will continue to grow for a long time.

In fact, we've hit more than 70,000 deaths in the US, which was the number we weren't supposed to reach for another three months.

As Faust, who will not make a pact with the denial devil, wrote, "the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse."

I'm also stunned by the number of Americans who are really anxious to get infected, and quite happy to pass that infection along to spouses, children, parents, grandparents, or anybody, really.

The tens of thousands of people -- maybe even hundreds of thousands -- who are openly flouting physical distancing and mask guidelines makes me really worried about the state of public education in this country. Or if some states even have any public education. Or how many of these people made it out of third grade.

And then there's the violence all too typical of the rightwing: The rallies by militia groups armed to the teeth as an intimidation tactic, the death threats made to Democratic governors trying to stop the spread of the deadly virus, and now, murder.

When a woman and her adult daughter entered a Family Dollar store in Detroit Friday afternoon, the security guard informed the mask-less daughter that she would have to cover up, per Governor Gretchen Whitmer's order. The daughter left the store, but her mother started yelling at the guard and haranguing him, so he told her to leave. She did, and returned with her husband and adult son. They entered the store and shot the guard in the head, killing him.

The security guard's name is Calvin Munerlyn. He was married, the father of six kids and three stepchildren. The woman has been arrested and charged with first-degree premeditated murder; the two cowards who killed Munerlyn ran away and are hiding.

I must admit, I'm glad that most of The Greatest Generation is gone, because after the sacrifices they made, they would be ashamed if they saw that today, some of us are so soft we can't bear to wear a mask.

So some more bad news, and then some good news:

First, the University of Washington model of predicted coronavirus deaths that is most often cited by the White House -- even though many epidemiologists have issues with its methodology -- has nearly doubled its estimate of deaths by Aug. 4 from 72,433 to 135,000. Why? Because states are easing their business and social restrictions too soon.

In addition, a presentation prepared by the CDC for Trump projected that there could be up to 3,000 deaths per day in the US by June 1, with a sharp spike around May 14. That’s double the number of deaths per day we have now.

The good news, if it pans out: Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and the German company BioNTech announced this morning that they have started human trials in the US of a potential vaccine, and if the tests are successful, and the feds give a rush approval, it could be ready by September. Of course, some steps will have to be skipped along the way, making some worry about both its safety and efficacy. We'll see. WWFD? (What Would Fauci Do?)

Meanwhile, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is allowing retail businesses to let their employees come to work to fulfill online and phone orders. Still no customers, but you'll be able to get flowers for Mom.

Mass. public health officials examined sewage from the Deer Island treatment plant in late March and found that the number of actual infections were at least five times higher than the number of confirmed cases being reported at the time. This kind of study is being done all over the country on the theory that it could provide a more accurate picture of the extent of the disease than clinical testing alone.

And the Globe's Billy Baker investigates the 12 stages of quarantine, and it isn't always pretty. But it is funny.

Finally, I leave you with this New York Times story about a morgue worker who buys daffodils every day using her own money so that she can set a flower on top of every white body bag that's sitting inside the three long, grim, refrigerated trailers parked outside her hospital.

Her name is Tanisha Brunson-Malone, and she's a forensic technician at the Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey.

She says the act has been therapeutic for her as she became worn down by the endless stream of death: "It was something I just did out of being emotionally exhausted and depleted."

Amidst the ugly cesspool of recriminations, denials, personal attacks, scapegoating, and finger-pointing emanating from the White House, and the threats and violence against fellow Americans springing up in some quarters, her simple act of mercy and grace is a nice reminder that there are many more of us who aren't monsters.

Ms. Brunson-Malone's gesture is all but invisible, seen by only some colleagues and the funeral home workers who arrive to claim bodies. Her flowers are for the dead alone, a fleeting brush with dignity and decorum on the way from one sad place to another.

"I was kind of like their voice," Ms. Brunson-Malone said, "because they were voiceless."
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| Thanks for reading. Today is GivingTuesdayNow, a twist on the global generosity movement that usually falls on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving in the US. But the rapid spread of the virus means we can't wait that long; the need is too great. So organizers created a special event today. Here's more.

Send comments and suggestions to teresa.hanafin at globe.com, or follow me on Twitter @BostonTeresa. See you tomorrow.
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Five things to tell someone who insists coronavirus is just a bad flu

By Christina Prignano Globe Staff,Updated May 5, 2020, 3 hours ago
A rally was held Monday to end the coronavirus restrictions.DAVID L. RYAN/GLOBE STAFF
The United States is entering its fifth month since the coronavirus first appeared here and though the caseload and death toll continue to rise, there are still those who insist the virus is no more severe than a bad flu. Some protesters of virus restrictions in Massachusetts and beyond have used that argument to advocate for reopening businesses and lifting stay-at-home orders.

Here are a few reasons why those suggesting the coronavirus is no worse than the flu are making a false assertion.

1. The coronavirus is more severe than the flu, more deadly than the flu, and it appears to spread more easily

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According to a CDC study, a higher percentage of older people required hospitalization during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic compared to the early part of the previous five flu seasons. Among adults 85 and older, between about 2 to 6 people per 100,000 required hospitalization for flu, while more than 17 people per 100,000 required hospitalization for coronavirus, according to the study.

The mortality rate of coronavirus is not yet fully known. Without a solid idea of how many people have been infected, it’s not possible to reliably determine what percentage of those with the disease have died. But experts say the coronavirus is almost certainly more deadly than the flu.

Finally, according to the CDC, the coronavirus appears to be more easily transmitted from person to person than the flu. People who do not show symptoms can still be contagious and can infect others for several days before they know they are sick, if they develop symptoms at all. With influenza, people are most contagious in the days following the onset of symptoms, according to the CDC, though it’s still possible to infect others the day before symptoms begin.

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2. Even with severe lockdown measures, the virus has killed nearly 70,000 Americans in a span of just over three months

Much of the country has been in an unprecedented lockdown for several weeks. Schools are closed across the country, and some states are only now beginning to allow people to patronize nonessential businesses. Even with those measures, tens of thousands of Americans have died since the first official coronavirus deaths in early February, overwhelming morgues and funeral service providers in New York and elsewhere.

And it could continue to get worse as states begin to reopen their economies: An internal Trump administration document obtained by the New York Times projects a daily death toll of 3,000 by June 1.

3. There’s still a lot we don’t know about how the virus behaves

— Is it airborne? We don’t know for sure. There’s research that suggests the the virus could remain in the air even after an infected person has departed, but it remains unclear if the virus can be transmitted through aerosol particles.

— Are people who have been exposed to the virus immune from it? Probably, but it’s too early to say. “It’s a reasonable assumption that this virus is not changing very much. If we get infected now and it comes back next February or March we think this person is going to be protected," Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, said last month. But it’s still an assumption that hasn’t yet been proven.

— Do we have a full sense of all the symptoms of the disease? We are starting to, but as doctors treat more patients, they’re finding previously unknown symptoms like the loss of smell, blood clots, and other issues.

Compare those unknowns to the flu, which has been studied for decades and whose behavior scientists can generally predict.

4. It’s true younger people are at a much lower risk of death from the coronavirus — but that doesn’t tell the whole story

Those clamoring to reopen the economy often point to statistics that show most fatal victims are older and have underlying health issues, and argue that younger people should be allowed to resume their activities. But even if you ignore the fact that young people who resume their normal lives could go on to infect vulnerable people (and you shouldn’t), younger people can get very seriously ill from the disease. The CDC issued a report in March that found that among those who were hospitalized with coronavirus, 20 percent were aged 20 to 44. And the Washington Post reported recently that younger people, even if they are not suffering severe symptoms of COVID-19, are still developing blood clots that can lead to strokes.

5. There’s no proven treatment and no vaccine

A number of anti-viral drugs are being tested in hopes of finding an effective treatment for coronavirus, and at least one has shown some early positive results. But unlike the flu, there is no treatment available that has been proven to reduce the severity or shorten the duration of COVID-19. And a vaccine is still many months away, whereas a flu vaccine is widely available every year.

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Christina Prignano can be reached at christina.prignano at globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @cprignano.

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Christina Prignano Deering (@CPrignano) | Twitter

The latest Tweets from Christina Prignano Deering (@CPrignano). Digital editor for politics @BostonGlobe Past: @...
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